Schools to Alter Building Project
Student enrollment will fall in next 10 years, study finds;
District forced to revise plans
reprinted from the 1/19/05 Akron Beacon Journal
A new study shows the Akron Public Schools' enrollment falling during the next 10 years rather than rising then only slightly dipping as the state originally projected. Instead of the district's enrollment increasing to nearly 31,000 students, Akron's rolls are now expected to fall to just over 27,100. Akron is expected to have about 3,400 fewer students than originally projected by the 2012-13 school year — a difference the district will have to address by scaling back its $800 million construction project.
"This is something we have to wrestle with,'' said Superintendent Sylvester Small, who shared the bad news with school board members during a special meeting Tuesday evening. "People are not going to be happy. But they would be even less happy if we built buildings we didn't need.''
Exactly how the district's plan will be changed isn't known. The district will set up a task force of school, city, and state officials to study the issue. The group's members are expected to be named this week and begin meeting next week. The task force will have an ambitious timeline, with less than a month to report its recommendations to the school board and the public. The school board is expected to vote on the group's proposals on Feb. 28.
The changes could include closing schools, decreasing the planned size of buildings, redrawing school boundaries, and using buildings for another purpose, such as making a middle school a high school. Some of these steps could come as early as this fall, while others may be phased in over several years.
"As we move forward with this, we have to do what makes sense to right-size our buildings,'' said Paul Allison, the Board's president. "These are some tough decisions we will be called on to make.''
The task force will meet with representatives from the Ohio School Facilities Commission (O.S.F.C.) Friday (1/21/05) to learn exactly how much the district will have to downsize its project. In Canton, where enrollment is also dropping, the O.S.F.C. has told the district its project will have to be decreased by 150,000 square feet.
During the next 15 years, all 58 Akron schools are expected to be rebuilt or renovated under a project being funded with a combination of state and local tax money.
The O.S.F.C. requires that enrollment updates be done every three years in districts receiving state funding for construction projects. Based on these studies, a project could be scaled back or expanded — depending on the enrollment trend. The state's previous study of Akron's enrollment — done in 2002 — showed the district's rolls increasing from 30,583 in the 2004-05 school year to 30,971 in the 2007-08 school year. The number of students was then expected to dip slightly to 30,511 by 2012-13.
The new study projects Akron's enrollment steadily dropping from 28,655 in the 2004-05 school year to 27,052 in the 2012-13 school year — a decrease of 1,603 students. The number is then expected to rise by about 100 students — to 27,159 in 2013-14, a year not included in the previous study.
Akron school leaders thought the state's original projections showing enrollment rising were off. "We all thought they were crazy,'' Small said. "We have been declining for a long, long time.''
David James, who is overseeing the construction project for the district, gave board members an overview of the newest enrollment projections. Details included:
- The district's current enrollment is about 1,100 less than projected in the most recent study. The study estimated 28,655 students, but the district now has about 27,554 students.
- Enrollment is projected to decline in all eight of Akron's clusters, except for Firestone and Ellet, where increases are expected. North is predicted to remain about the same.
- The O.S.F.C. will not help fund any schools with less than 350 students. Twenty-four of Akron's elementary schools now do not meet this threshold.
Board member Rebecca DiDonato Heimbaugh questioned how the district's enrollment could have changed so much during the short time between the last study and the most recent update. "I don't want to get too far into the building plan and realize we're stuck — that we've built too much or not built enough,'' she said.
Small said the district has lost a significant number of students to charter schools since the initial study was done. He thinks the update should be "more accurate.''
Jeff Tuckerman, who is overseeing Akron's project for the O.S.F.C., said enrollment projections "are science and they're art.'' As the district's project moves forward, he said, the state will continually be watching enrollment patterns, with an eye on the total project. He compared the process to "building an airplane while you're flying.''
Board member Mary Stormer said she is glad public comments will be taken on any changes to the district's project. Besides a meeting scheduled for Feb. 24, additional community meetings are expected to be held in May. "It's important we don't alienate our stakeholders and future customers,'' Stormer said.
Small said the task force will look at geography, location, and the age of buildings. He said all schools will be looked at — not just elementary buildings. For example, Small said Central-Hower High School, which has long been rumored to be vulnerable for closure, could be changed into an early college building. In Dayton, Youngstown, and other urban districts that have the program, students take college classes for credit while in high school.